Broncos Claim AFC Top Seed, Eagles Reclaim NFC #1 as NFL Playoff Race Heats Up After Week 11
After Week 11 of the 2025-26 NFL season, the playoff picture has sharpened in dramatic fashion. The Denver Broncos stunned the league by overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs to claim the AFC’s top seed, while the Philadelphia Eagles reclaimed the NFC’s #1 spot in a thrilling Sunday Night Football win over the Detroit Lions. With six games left for most teams, the race isn’t just tight—it’s volatile. And under the NFL’s seven-team playoff format, every win matters more than ever.
Denver’s Breakthrough and the AFC’s Tangled Top
The Denver Broncos didn’t just win their Week 11 matchup against Kansas City—they announced themselves as a true contender. A 27-20 victory at Empower Field at Mile High pushed them to 9-2, leapfrogging the Chiefs and locking in the AFC’s top seed. What makes this even more remarkable? They did it without a 500-yard passing game or a 100-yard rusher. Instead, it was a suffocating defense, two forced turnovers, and a clutch 4th-quarter drive by quarterback Bo Nix that sealed it.The New England Patriots, also 9-2, sit just behind Denver as the #2 seed. But here’s the twist: because the Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, they earn the bye. That means if the season ended today, the Patriots would host a wild card team—likely the Indianapolis Colts—in the first round. The Colts, at 8-2, are flying under the radar but are the only AFC team besides Denver and New England with a winning percentage above .800. Their bye week last week didn’t hurt their momentum.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) lead the AFC North, but the Baltimore Ravens (5-5) are closing fast. Two remaining head-to-head games between these teams could flip the division—and possibly the entire playoff seeding. The Kansas City Chiefs, now 5-5, are on the outside looking in. A win streak might still get them in as a wild card, but their path is narrow.
Eagles’ Return to the Throne and the NFC West Showdown
On the NFC side, the Philadelphia Eagles didn’t just win—they reasserted dominance. Their 31-24 road victory over the Detroit Lions on November 17, 2025, at Ford Field snapped a three-game losing streak and knocked the Seattle Seahawks out of the #1 seed. The Eagles now sit at 10-1, their only loss coming in Week 3 against the San Francisco 49ers.That 49ers team? They’re still alive. At 7-4, they’re clinging to a wild card spot, but they’ve got a brutal three-game stretch coming up: home against the Los Angeles Rams, then road trips to Seattle and Arizona. The Rams, meanwhile, are the surprise of the NFC. At 8-3, they’ve surged behind rookie running back Isaiah Spiller and a top-five defense. They’re the NFC’s #2 seed, and if they win out, they could host a divisional game.
Three NFC West teams in the playoffs? That’s never happened before. The Seattle Seahawks (7-4), San Francisco 49ers (7-4), and Los Angeles Rams (8-3) are all jostling for position. The tiebreakers are a mess. The Rams hold the head-to-head over both, but the 49ers and Seahawks have played each other twice already. One loss could cost a team their bye. One win could vault them into the top seed.
Why the Seven-Team Format Changes Everything
Since the NFL expanded to seven teams per conference in 2020, the playoffs have become a minefield of parity. No longer do the top two seeds cruise into the divisional round. Now, even the #7 seed—likely the Cleveland Browns (5-6) or Tennessee Titans (5-6) in the AFC—can win a game and scare the hell out of a #2 seed.That’s why the Broncos’ bye matters. If they finish 11-6, they’ll host the lowest remaining seed in the Divisional Round. But if they slip to 10-7? Suddenly, they’re the #3 seed, forced to play at home against the #6 seed—probably the Steelers or Ravens—in a game that could be a slugfest. The same logic applies to the Eagles. A single loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 15 could drop them to #2, forcing them to play the Rams or 49ers in the divisional round.
The NFL’s format rewards consistency, not just wins. Tiebreakers now matter more than ever. Divisional records, conference records, strength of schedule—all of it adds up. And with only six games left, every single one carries playoff implications.
What’s Next? The Final Six Weeks
The schedule doesn’t soften. The Broncos face the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans in back-to-back road games. The Eagles have the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys left. The Rams play the 49ers in Week 16—likely the most important NFC game of the season.Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers meet again in Week 14, then again in Week 17. The winner of those two games likely wins the AFC North. The loser? Might still make the playoffs as a wild card—but they’ll have to win on the road.
The regular season ends January 4, 2026. The playoffs begin January 10. And the entire tournament culminates at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, on February 8, 2026, for Super Bowl LIX.
Historical Context: How This Compares
The last time the Broncos held the AFC’s top seed was 2015, when they went on to win Super Bowl 50. The Eagles haven’t been #1 since 2017, when they won Super Bowl LII. This season’s playoff structure—seven teams per conference—is more unpredictable than any since the 1970s merger. Back then, wild cards were rare. Now, they’re inevitable.What’s different this time? Depth. The NFC has five legitimate playoff teams. The AFC has six. That’s unprecedented. And with no team having a clear path to the Super Bowl, the winner will have to survive three road games. That’s not just tough—it’s historic.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the seven-team playoff format affect the Broncos and Eagles’ chances?
With seven teams qualifying per conference, the top seed gets a bye, but the #2 seed must host a wild card team—likely a dangerous 6-5 or 7-4 opponent. For the Broncos and Eagles, that means securing the #1 seed isn’t just about pride—it’s about avoiding a tough road game in the divisional round. If they finish #2, they could face the Steelers, Rams, or 49ers at home, all of whom are capable of winning.
Who’s most likely to win the AFC North?
The Pittsburgh Steelers currently lead at 6-4, but the Baltimore Ravens (5-5) have two games left against them. The winner of those matchups likely wins the division. If they split, Pittsburgh wins on head-to-head tiebreaker. But if Baltimore wins both, they take the crown and likely become a dangerous wild card.
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes—but it’s unlikely. At 5-5, they’re tied with the Browns and Titans for the last wild card spot. They need to win four of their final six games, including road trips to Buffalo and Miami. Their remaining schedule is brutal, and they’ve lost three of their last four. Without a major turnaround, they’re out.
Why are three NFC West teams in playoff contention?
Because the division is unusually balanced. The Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle Seahawks are all 7-4 or better. No team dominates. The Rams hold the tiebreaker over both, but the 49ers and Seahawks have split their two meetings. Whoever wins the final NFC West game—Rams vs. 49ers in Week 16—could clinch the division and the #2 seed.
What’s the significance of the Eagles’ win over the Lions?
It wasn’t just a win—it was a statement. The Lions were 8-2 and had been the NFC’s most consistent team. By beating them on the road, the Eagles proved they can win against elite competition. That win also gave them the tiebreaker over Seattle in the event of a final record tie. It’s the kind of game that defines a championship contender.
When will playoff seeding be finalized?
Seeding won’t be locked until Week 17 ends on January 4, 2026. But by Week 15, most teams will know their fate. The Broncos and Eagles could clinch top seeds as early as Week 16 if they win out and their rivals lose. The final week will likely decide who hosts the divisional round—and who’s forced to play on the road in January.